On November 14, 2021, the “World Energy Development Report 2021” (“World Energy Blue Book”) launch conference and the “Double Carbon” Target and Energy Structure Transformation Seminar will be held through online video conferences. The report was edited by Huang Xiaoyong, former dean of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the International Energy Security Research Center, and published by the Social Sciences Literature Press. The conference was co-sponsored by the University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Graduate School) and the Social Sciences Literature Press.
The World Energy Blue Book points out that, taking the Texas blackout in the United States to look at the complexity of China’s power market reforms, it provides new perspectives and new ideas for my country’s power market reforms. The Blue Book pointed out that although the Texas Power Grid is the most determined and thorough independent power grid in the global electrification reform, large-scale power outages still occurred in extreme cold weather. The Blue Book analyzes the causes and consequences of the Texas blackout and subsequent measures, and points out that China should establish an independent power market and a sufficient power capacity market.
The World Energy Blue Book proposes that the global epidemic prevention and control limits the mobility of social and economic activities, leading to the largest decline in energy demand in the world in 70 years. In 2020, the average daily global oil demand will be 9.47% lower than that in 2019; at the same time, global oil supply Severe surplus has led to a sharp drop in global oil prices in 2020; oil prices are expected to rise in 2021 as demand grows, showing an uneven trend. In addition, global natural gas production in 2020 will increase by 1.0% year-on-year, which is far lower than the 3.4% growth rate of the previous year. Among them, the growth rate of LNG trade has slowed sharply, and the price of LNG in major natural gas markets such as Europe, America and Northeast Asia hit a record low .
The World Energy Blue Book believes that in the context of the “carbon neutral” and “carbon peak” goals of countries around the world, the global energy structure is becoming more diversified, the proportion of renewable energy continues to rise, and the electrification process continues to advance. In 2020, the proportion of coal in the global primary energy will decline. Among them, the proportion of China’s coal consumption in the primary energy consumption has dropped to 56.8%. In 2020, the global installed capacity of renewable energy will reach 2,799 GW, of which hydropower accounts for the highest proportion, reaching 1,322 GW. Europe leads the world in the development of renewable energy, and the United States will increase its new installed capacity of renewable energy by 80% year-on-year in 2020. The rising trend of world electricity has slowed down, and China’s power generation has steadily ranked first in the world, and the power generation of developed countries represented by the United States has remained flat or has declined.
In his main report, Professor Huang Xiaoyong pointed out that in view of the current domestic energy development situation, the first suggestion is to build a diversified and complementary integrated energy supply system to realize the complementary coordination of multiple energy sources such as oil, coal, natural gas and electricity. The second is to improve energy efficiency and focus on the development, promotion and use of energy-saving technologies. The third is to pay attention to the carbon reduction effect of hydrogen energy. At present, hydrogen is widely used as an industrial raw material in the industrial sector. The key to the future of hydrogen energy in China’s heavy industry, decarbonization of heavy transportation, and the flexibility of the power system is to realize the green production of hydrogen energy and reduce the proportion of hydrogen produced from natural gas and coal. The fourth is to build a new type of power system based on stable energy with a reasonable structure. Under the requirements of both reliability and carbon neutrality, the problem of the proportion of intermittent electricity is solved.
Global installed capacity of renewable energy will grow by more than 10% in 2020
Starting from the current status and future trends of world energy development, the World Energy Blue Book summarizes and analyzes the world’s oil, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear power and renewable energy markets in 2020. The Blue Book pointed out that in 2020, global oil reserves will decline, natural gas production will decline, coal consumption will become more volatile, and global electricity consumption will also decline. Among them, global coal demand has suffered the most, followed by oil demand.
The World Energy Blue Book pointed out that the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has triggered shocks in global crude oil supply, coupled with the reduction in oil demand due to the new crown epidemic. According to OPEC data, the average daily global oil demand in 2020 is 90.51 million barrels, compared with 2019. A decrease of 9.47 million barrels, a decrease of 9.47%. It is predicted that world oil demand will increase in 2021, and global oil prices will continue to rise.
The World Energy Blue Book shows that the global natural gas production in 2020 is about 4.03 trillion cubic meters, an increase of 1% year-on-year, which is far lower than the 3.4% growth rate of the previous year. Natural gas production has experienced a historical decline and the LNG market has oversupply. The report predicts that the global natural gas market will perform relatively smoothly in 2021, with a steady increase in natural gas supply and demand, and Asia will become the main driving force for natural gas demand growth.
The World Energy Blue Book pointed out that in 2020, global coal consumption fell by 4%, mainly due to the shrinking coal market in Europe and China’s coal control policy. Coal prices in Northwestern Europe and China fell by 34% and 14%, respectively. Coal demand is expected to recover slowly with a slight rebound. In addition, the global installed capacity of renewable energy will reach 2,799 GW in 2020, an increase of 10.3% over the previous year. It is expected that the development and utilization of renewable energy will occupy a larger share in the future.
Data from the World Energy Blue Book shows that in 2020, the power industry in most countries and regions around the world has experienced the biggest setback in half a century, and traditional power generation has been compressed by 7% by renewable energy. Among them, coal-fired power generation fell by about 5%, and nuclear power generation fell by 4%. The report predicts that renewable energy power generation will become the main force in global energy growth.
In 2020, the proportion of coal in China’s primary energy consumption will drop to 56.8%
The World Energy Blue Book analyzes the development status of China’s energy industry. China’s total energy production has shown an upward trend as a whole. Since 1996, China’s total energy production has generally shown an upward trend. In 2019, China’s total energy production was 3.97 billion tons. Standard coal, an increase of 15.6% year-on-year.
Data from the World Energy Blue Book shows that the proportion of coal consumption in primary energy will drop to 56.8% in 2020, and the growth rate of coal consumption has also dropped significantly, with coal consumption of 2.827 billion standard coal. Although the growth rate of wind and solar power generation is lower than the global average growth rate, my country’s wind and solar power generation capacity has ranked first in the world in 2019; the supply and demand of my country’s power market will be stable in 2020, and the entire society will consume 6.67 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity , An increase of 2.81% year-on-year, and the installed power generation capacity was 2.083 billion kWh, an increase of 9.5% year-on-year.
2021 is the first year of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan. The World Energy Blue Book believes that China’s energy industry will usher in a new journey of development. It is estimated that China’s total non-fossil energy consumption will reach 5.2 billion tons of standard coal in 2021, hydropower, nuclear power, and biomass power generation will continue to grow, distributed photovoltaic power generation will develop rapidly, and various new energy technologies will also be supported by information platforms A breakthrough was made during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.
The World Energy Blue Book points out that under the constraints of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, my country’s energy consumption structure will continue to be optimized, and the quality of the energy supply system will be significantly improved. China’s energy industry will face greater pressure to reduce emissions. Modern coal chemical industries such as petrochemical and coal chemical industries will accelerate their green transformation. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the comprehensive recycling of multiple resources and the coordinated symbiosis of industrial ecology.
China’s natural gas will account for 11.5% of primary energy consumption in 2025
In 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced to the world China’s new peak goals and carbon neutral vision at the 75th UN General Debate. The World Energy Blue Book believes that, from the analysis of the development process and trend of primary energy in the world, it points out that the proportion of natural gas and non-fossil energy in China will continue to increase in the next 20 years. With the goal of peaking carbon in 2030, China’s natural gas market is developing rapidly. It is estimated that by 2025, natural gas consumption will account for 11.5% of primary energy consumption, and by 2030 will account for 14% of primary energy consumption. Consumption will account for 15% of primary energy consumption.
The World Energy Blue Book report believes that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, China’s natural gas market reform will enter a practical period, natural gas infrastructure construction will be fair and open, upstream and downstream participants will continue to diversify, and natural gas pricing will gradually achieve marketization. The driving force for the development of natural gas in the next five years depends on the economics of natural gas on the one hand, and on the support of natural gas by national policies on the other. In the next ten years, the goal of peak carbon will promote the widespread use of clean energy and new energy, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in natural gas in China.
The World Energy Blue Book pointed out that China’s natural gas market reform has lasted for 7 years. The government proposed the general direction of “controlling the middle and liberalizing the two ends” in 2014. The government will continue to introduce specific and effective regulatory rules and operating norms.
The U.S. will achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035
The World Energy Blue Book points out that tackling climate change is the common mission of all mankind, and achieving the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” is related to the common interests of all mankind. For this reason, more than 190 countries and regions around the world have reached a high degree of consensus and are active. Fulfill the commitment to carbon neutrality and jointly promote global energy conservation and emission reduction work.
The World Energy Blue Book report shows that in January 2021, US President Biden returned to the Paris Agreement and proposed several new policies to reduce carbon emissions. The United States plans to achieve carbon-free power generation by transitioning to renewable energy power generation in 2035. By 2050 Achieve carbon neutrality by the year. In December 2020, the leaders of the EU countries reached an agreement on a higher carbon reduction target at the EU Winter Summit held in Brussels, the capital of Belgium. They proposed that the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 should be reduced by at least 55% compared with 1990, and that carbon emissions should be achieved by 2050. To this end, the European Union plans to devote 25% of its long-term budget to climate action.
The World Energy Blue Book report pointed out that Japan will achieve “net zero emissions” of greenhouse gases by 2050. In order to achieve this goal, Japan proposed a “green growth plan” in December 2020 to provide power generation at sea, hydrogen ammonia fuel, nuclear energy, and carbon emissions. Carry out low-carbon actions in 14 areas including recycling. The South Korean government has also proposed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, establish renewable energy as the main energy source, and cultivate three new energy industries including renewable energy, hydrogen energy, and energy IT.
The World Energy Blue Book report pointed out that the United Kingdom is the first country in the world to use legal provisions to provide for medium and long-term emission reductions, and is also the first country to implement carbon neutrality. In 2020, the British government announced the “Green Industrial Revolution” plan, which is planned to 2030 Britain’s greenhouse gas emissions are 68% lower than in 1990.
Sino-U.S. relations have led to a decline in crude oil trade between the two countries
The World Energy Blue Book points out that the new crown pneumonia epidemic is the most serious public health crisis for mankind in a century. It has extensively affected the global energy market. From the demand side, in 2020, the global energy market will see a large drop in consumption and prices of various primary energy sources. Serious situation.
Data from the World Energy Blue Book shows that from March to May 2020, U.S. crude oil and refined oil exports to China increased from 7.79 million barrels to 44.962 million barrels, an increase of 477.2%. After May 2020, mutual energy trade between the two countries has appeared. A sharp drop. The report pointed out that in the trade agreement reached between China and the United States at the beginning of 2020, energy trade accounted for 1/4 of the total trade volume of the agreement. The volume of trade continued to fall. The World Energy Blue Book believes that although US energy exports to China will be affected by the epidemic in 2020, the main reason for the decline is the deterioration of Sino-US relations.
The World Energy Blue Book pointed out that although the energy consumption of China and the United States are both affected by the new crown epidemic, the order of the types of energy affected by the two countries is different. In 2020, all types of energy in China’s energy consumption will increase. Among them, the increase in crude oil consumption exceeds 30 million tons of standard coal, but the increase in crude oil consumption has also fallen the most. In contrast, energy consumption in the United States has suffered a much greater impact. Crude oil consumption has decreased the most, with consumption falling to 210 million tons of standard coal, and coal reduced by 96 million tons of standard coal.