The season is approaching August, and the first-tier manufacturers have started to discuss new orders for monocrystalline materials this week. Due to the Xinjiang GCL silicon material enterprise accident and the superimposed epidemic situation in Xinjiang, the external transportation of silicon materials has been restricted. In July, two 10,000-ton-level polysilicon companies were overhauled, namely Oriental Hope and Yongxiang Leshan. Furthermore, under the influence of the accident, the domestic government required silicon companies in Xinjiang to self-inspect their old production lines. The operating rate of the three companies is expected in August. Will be further reduced sharply.
On the whole, the supply gap of upstream silicon material companies has been enlarged more than expected. In the face of monocrystalline silicon wafer companies maintaining full production and new capacity expansion as scheduled, the demand for monocrystalline materials is increasing month by month, leading to July And in August, the supply was clearly in short supply, and the price of single crystal materials rose sharply. At present, some companies are still in the contract execution period, but downstream manufacturers worry about the expectation of lack of materials, and continue to catalyze the price increase, and the market price is very chaotic. This week, the transaction price of single crystal materials has been raised, falling between 75-80 yuan per kilogram, and the average price is 78 yuan per kilogram. Compared with last week, the average price has increased by 18 yuan per kilogram, an increase of up to 30%. From the current point of view, there will be a shortage of single crystal materials before the end of the year, which will further drive prices to continue to rise. It is expected that supply shortages and prices in the fourth quarter will have a chance to ease.
Since the beginning of July, the price of polycrystalline materials has been increasing weekly. Due to the intensified supply shortage of domestic silicon materials companies, the polycrystalline materials, which were originally low in output, are even worse. Domestic polycrystalline materials are sold this week. The price soared to between 50-58 yuan per kilogram, and the average price was 52 yuan per kilogram.
For overseas silicon materials, due to the shortage of domestic silicon materials and the expectation that prices will continue to rise, single-polycrystalline materials have increased to varying degrees this week, and the price of single-crystalline materials fell between US$8.2-8.7 per kilogram. ; The price of polycrystalline materials falls between 5.4-5.9 dollars per kilogram.
Due to the intensified supply shortage of upstream monocrystalline materials and the sharp increase in prices, the production cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers was further increased. Therefore, last week, the leading monocrystalline silicon wafer company Longji announced that G1 and M6 will increase by 0.1 yuan and 0.11 yuan per wafer respectively. RMB, and cancel the price discount. The overall price is increased by RMB 0.2-0.25 per piece compared to July. On the other hand, due to the small production capacity of professional monocrystalline silicon wafer companies and the weaker bargaining power of silicon materials, there is still a shortage of silicon materials in the second half of the year. The current prices are higher than the official quotations of Longji, but the companies responded to orders for sales in August. For the better, the current situation has not reduced the ability of battery manufacturers to pull goods due to price increases. This week, the domestic G1 and M6 prices fell between 2.6-2.7 yuan and 2.7-2.8 yuan per piece respectively; overseas G1 and M6 prices fell between 0.327-0.339 yuan and 0.339-0.351 yuan per piece respectively. In addition, the spread between G1 and M6 is RMB 0.1 per piece, which is an increase of RMB 0.01 per piece compared to the previous period.
For polycrystalline silicon wafers, due to the lack of improvement in the price of polycrystalline cells in the early stage, and even a trend of falling prices, the price of polycrystalline silicon wafers at that time was superimposed by the shortage of polycrystalline materials and the price increase was limited. However, the recent shortage of polycrystalline materials has intensified, and the price of polycrystalline cells has been superimposed. This week, the price of domestic polycrystalline silicon wafers has risen across the board. The transaction price fell between 1.3-1.4 yuan per piece, and the average price was 1.35 per piece. Yuan Renminbi. The part of overseas polysilicon wafers, driven by domestic prices, showed an upward trend this week. The price fell between US$0.17-0.182 per wafer, with an average price of US$0.176 per wafer.
On the evening of 7/24, Tongwei announced the price increase in August. The increase was mainly due to the work safety accident at the silicon material factory and the increase in silver paste. The overall cell cost was increased. Considering the shortage of Q3 cells, battery manufacturers negotiated prices Improve ability. The game between cells and components is still going on this week. The price of large new units in August has not yet been finalized. Some urgent orders have risen to RMB 0.88-0.89 per watt. Therefore, the overall price of monocrystalline cells has increased this week, and the average price of G1 has fallen below RMB 0.86-0.87 per watt, RMB 0.87-0.88 per watt for M6. The high-price segment came to 0.89-0.91 yuan per watt, and the low-price segment also increased to 0.83-0.84 yuan. Under the condition that subsequent prices may still rise, some component manufacturers consider reducing OEMs and changing their own battery production capacity to meet their own production capacity, and the rise of subsequent solar cells will be slightly slowed.
The price of M2 cells was rather chaotic this week. The current price has risen to RMB 0.86 per watt. However, demand has gradually declined in August. Under the condition of decreasing demand, the price of M2 cells is unlikely to increase significantly, and the price trend will continue to be gradually downhill.
Part of the polycrystalline cells is also affected by the shortage of silicon materials. The price of silicon wafers continues to rise, coupled with the gradual stabilization of demand in India, and the polycrystalline cells are expected to rebound. However, as the demand for polycrystalline gradually decreases, the price is unlikely to rise sharply.
Not only did silicon materials and wafers rise consistently, and solar cells rose more than expected, glass, ribbon, and EVA also increased due to the increasing demand in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, components were significantly lowered in order to consolidate shipments. In terms of the situation, there will be little remaining profit in the fourth quarter of modules. Orders less than RMB 1.4 per watt will all become loss-making prices. Especially for module factories that do not have their own cell production capacity, the pressure is greater, so it is usually difficult to raise prices. Component factories also shouted accordingly.
However, if re-negotiation is required, it may affect annual shipments and even long-term customer relationships. Therefore, the price changes of orders that have been signed are still rare, and the quotations for new orders that need to be signed will start to increase by 0.05 per watt. -Rmb 0.1 and USD 0.01, but in addition to domestic bidding projects that have grid connection pressure, many overseas countries can delay grid connection due to the epidemic, and the original transaction prices in some mature markets are slightly higher At the level of the market, the actual increase in overseas prices is not yet obvious, and domestic prices have begun to rise.
At present, it seems that the rising supply chain has brought great cost pressure on components, and as a result, the operating rate of components has been slightly reduced. In addition, the increase in component prices will also affect the installed capacity of domestic affordable projects this year, so 8-9 There will still be fierce games between buyers and sellers in various links during the month.