As of the end of 2020, my country’s installed wind power capacity was 281 million kilowatts and photovoltaic power generation capacity was 253 million kilowatts, totaling 534 million kilowatts. To achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power in my country will reach 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030, which means that the installed capacity of wind power and solar power will increase by 666 million kilowatts, which is more than doubled. As we all know, new energy has the characteristics of intermittent and volatility. Therefore, to carry such a large-scale new energy installation, the power grid and the entire power system must not only increase in quantity, but also undergo qualitative changes. Moreover, in order to operate this complex power grid and power system well in the future, the reforms of technology, management, system and other aspects must be coordinated and accelerated.
Recently, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hebei and other places have successively formulated high new energy installation development goals during the 14th Five-Year Plan. The reporter learned from an authoritative person that in the next five years, the national level may only do top-level design without limiting development capacity. Therefore, after a high proportion of renewable energy, represented by wind power and solar power, is connected to the grid, its intermittency and volatility will bring great challenges to the production and operation of traditional power systems.
It is understood that in recent years, with the continuous development of the power grid, the capacity and reserve capacity have become larger and larger, but in the case of a high proportion of renewable energy access, how to build a new type of power system that is widely interconnected, flexible, and safe and controllable It is a “must-answer question” before power grid companies.
The “14th Five-Year Plan” new energy will be greatly developed, the premise is to solve the problem of land and grid access
Statistics from the National Energy Administration show that by the end of 2020, my country’s installed renewable energy power generation capacity reached 934 million kilowatts, an increase of approximately 17.5% year-on-year. The industry generally believes that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, my country’s renewable energy installed capacity will continue to expand steadily. State Energy Investment, State Power Investment, Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Three Gorges, China General Nuclear Power and many other central power enterprises have recently expressed their views that new energy will be the focus of development during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. Although the national energy “14th Five-Year” plan has not yet been issued, more than 20 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) including Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai have successively released the “14th Five-Year” new energy development plan, and the “great scenery” is boundless.
It is understood that the National Energy Administration may not set specific planning targets for new energy during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. That is to say, the development capacity of new energy will no longer be restricted. As long as enterprises can solve the problem of land and grid access, they can “get away Do it on your shoulders”.
People in the new energy industry generally believe that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the development of the new energy industry will not be a “Great Leap Forward”. After all, there are two external constraints on land and power grids, which are essential for project development. “Generally speaking, the installation area of 10,000-kilowatt photovoltaic power station modules is about 400 mu, and the installed capacity of 10,000-kilowatt wind power covers an area of about 2,300 mu. Under the restrictions of ecological protection and basic farmland red lines, the remaining development resources will become more and more The annual new land use index is limited. Moreover, if they cannot be connected to the grid, they will face the phenomenon of wind turbines and photovoltaic panels basking in the sun. Therefore, companies will also plan scientifically and rationally when developing new energy projects.” A corporate person who did not want to be named said The reporter said frankly.
The traditional development model “walking into a dead end” needs to establish a low-carbon “access to electricity” logic
Industry experts believe that the traditional development model of wind power and solar power generation is no longer sustainable in order to maintain high-quality development of renewable energy in my country.
Feng Yongsheng, deputy director of the Market Office of the Energy Economic Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Financial Strategy, told reporters that the core problem of the unsustainable traditional development model of renewable energy lies in its development costs being shared by the society. At present, my country’s renewable energy subsidy gap is more than 300 billion yuan, and by 2030, the subsidy gap will reach one trillion yuan. Government financial funds subsidize public funds, and public funds have costs. These costs come from the net loss of social welfare caused by tax collection and management. According to the general law of developing countries, this cost is about 1.5-2 yuan. . In other words, assuming that renewable energy is calculated as a subsidy of 1 yuan per kilowatt hour, the social finance needs to actually bear 1.5-2 yuan. In order to subsidize 300 billion yuan, the society may actually bear about 400 to 500 billion yuan. Obviously, this model cannot be called “high quality”. If we continue to follow the previous subsidy development model of rapid market construction, the development of new energy will almost “walk into a dead end.”
Therefore, under the general background of subsidy decline, wind power and solar power generation technologies are developing rapidly, the conversion rate is continuously increasing, and the development mode is also accelerated from singularity and concentration to diversification and integration.
According to Wu Junhong, director of the Smart Energy Office of East China Electric Power Design Institute, the traditional development model of renewable energy ignores the cost of safe use of renewable energy on the one hand, and the low-carbon value of renewable energy on the other. Regarding the former, although many regions have achieved renewable energy parity on the grid, this is based on the premise of ensuring their power generation utilization hours, ignoring the possible increase in long-distance transmission costs to ensure power generation utilization hours, and the power system The cost of ancillary services it provides.
As far as the latter is concerned, the logic of developing renewable and clean energy is not the logic of power shortage, but the logic of low-carbon “access to electricity”. Therefore, the measurement of renewable energy costs is not in the same dimension as traditional energy. Although the carbon market, green certificates and other means are the manifestation of the latter value, if the value is not reflected enough or a more scientific and reasonable relationship is not established with the power market mechanism, it will be difficult to make renewable energy lasting in the future power market. Market Competitiveness.
Chen Haoyong, director of the Electric Power Economics and Power Market Research Institute of South China University of Technology, believes that the source network and load storage have not achieved coordinated planning. For example, too many wind power and photovoltaic bases have been developed in the “Three Norths” low-load areas, which are difficult to send out, and abandon wind and light. The problem is serious. “In the future, wind power and solar power generation will be developed at the same time as centralized and distributed. Special attention should be paid to the development and utilization of offshore wind power and distributed photovoltaic in the east, and coordinated planning of source, grid, and storage, and improvement of the electricity price mechanism.”
High-quality development requirements are forced to accelerate the formation of a scientific electricity price mechanism
At the same time, the large-scale development of new energy is an opportunity for high-quality development for the power industry. The use of a scientific electricity price mechanism will effectively guide the optimal allocation of power resources and help my country realize energy low-carbon transformation.
Feng Yongsheng told reporters that when renewable energy develops as the absolute main body of power consumption, building a flexible power system centered on renewable energy and proactively providing system services will make the entire power system more economical and balanced. The current key problem is that the basic framework of the power market system is not perfect, and the construction of a new generation of power system is faced with various challenges such as slow progress in market construction and unsmooth electricity price transmission mechanism.
Wu Junhong believes that the effect of the optimal allocation of power resources depends on the multiple effects of the electricity price mechanism. For example, trading electricity price signals can guide the optimization of power generation, and the transmission and distribution price mechanism can guide reasonable investment in power grid projects. In the future, the optimal development of new energy should also be promoted by a variety of mechanisms. For example, whether to choose the model of developing large-scale new energy from afar and transmitting it to the load center through the high-voltage grid or developing a distributed new energy model near the load center, and The rationality and operability of the transaction electricity price mechanism, auxiliary service mechanism and transmission and distribution price mechanism are closely related.
“Designing a reasonable price formation mechanism for a power market with a high proportion of renewable energy is currently a world-class problem.” Chen Haoyong said that traditional power market design, especially spot market design, is mainly aimed at situations where fossil energy is the mainstay. And proposed. Because electric energy is difficult to store in large quantities, the generated power must be balanced in real time. From the perspective of the impact on power system dispatch and power balance, the quality of electric energy commodities should be measured from the three dimensions of volatility, controllability, and randomness and reasonable pricing.