Distributed photovoltaics, which have been hit hard by “531”, have returned to the market center.

According to data from the National Energy Administration, distributed photovoltaics will add 16.4GW in the first three quarters of 2021, accounting for 64%. If the additional capacity of 4.8GW for households in October and November is superimposed, the new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics in 2021 will exceed 21GW, which will hit a record high.

However, it can be expected that this is only the starting point. Under the policy east wind, distributed photovoltaics that will fully get rid of subsidies in 2022 may still be at the top.

Policy Dongfeng

“Double carbon” will undoubtedly open up space for rapid growth in the next 10 years or even the next 40 years for new energy sources such as photovoltaics. The huge market demand is also prompting new photovoltaic models and industry ecology.

As far as distributed photovoltaics are concerned, as an important measure to achieve the “dual carbon” goal and the two national strategies of rural revitalization, in June 2021, the National Energy Administration officially launched the county-wide rooftop distributed photovoltaic pilot work, and clarified the different types of roofs. Photovoltaic installation ratio: 50% for party and government organs, 40% for public buildings such as schools, hospitals, and village committees, 30% for industrial and commercial roofs, and 20% for rural residential roofs. On September 14, 676 county-wide pilot projects were announced, and the vigorous development of distributed photovoltaics across the county officially kicked off.

For this much-anticipated and controversial distributed photovoltaic “feast”, some people in the industry commented that the actual gain to the industry is limited, but it has indeed improved the acceptance of photovoltaics, and the project conversion cycle has been greatly shortened. The era train is on the fast track.

In addition, the strictest “double control of energy consumption” sweeping across the country has once again added a “catalyst” to the distributed photovoltaics in the fire. In the second half of 2021, in order to actively respond to the dual energy consumption control policy, Yunnan, Zhejiang and other provinces have issued policies to promote energy consumption and emission reduction by restricting electricity consumption and increasing electricity prices. The industry was deeply affected and then set off a wave of price hikes.

However, under the “double control of energy consumption”, the advantages of clean electricity such as photovoltaics are also reflected again. New regulations have been introduced in many places to clarify that the energy used by photovoltaics is not limited by the total energy consumption index of the year, and the electricity price of the stacking business catalogue is cancelled. The wave of photovoltaic installations by major power producers is on a whim.

According to the statistics of the agency electricity purchase price in January 2022 just released by 28 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, compared with December 2021, the electricity price in 14 provinces has risen, which greatly benefits industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaics.

“In the past, photovoltaic installers looked for roofs, but now roofs actively look for installers.” A photovoltaic developer in Shanghai sighed.

swarm

The best opportunity is to stand in the wind. The easiest way for companies to participate in “dual carbon” is to install photovoltaics. Central state-owned enterprises have penetrated the entire army, and new cross-border forces such as the Internet, real estate, building materials, and papermaking have swarmed in. Distributed photovoltaics have become a “sweet pastry” in the market.

In fact, as early as 2020, the determination of central state-owned enterprises to take part in distributed photovoltaics has already emerged: State Power Investment Corporation intends to build a unicorn enterprise in the field of distributed photovoltaics, and Three Gorges leads the establishment of Three Gorges Smart Energy Investment (Hainan) Co., Ltd. to focus on industrial and commercial distribution In this way, Longyuan Power and Liansheng New Energy aim to build the world’s leading distributed energy investor with the goal of GW-level increments per year during the “14th Five-Year Plan”.

The distributed photovoltaics in the whole county have accelerated the entry of the whole army of central state-owned enterprises. According to the public information tracked by Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network, up to now, more than 380 cities and counties have finalized distributed photovoltaic development enterprises/intent enterprises in the whole county. Mindong Electric Power, Pingmei Shenma Group, Henan Investment Group, Shanxi International Energy Group and other central state-owned enterprises all ended.

According to recent news, the State Power Investment Corporation revealed that the number of target counties for rooftop distributed photovoltaics in the whole county has exceeded 100, Datang has obtained 51 national pilot counties, and the National Energy Group will finalize nearly 1GW of distributed photovoltaic projects in the fourth quarter of 2021. EPC development enterprises, only 12 Yuehuaneng has more than 20 distributed photovoltaic projects registered in Anhui Province.

Even regardless of the county-wide factor, the investment value of distributed photovoltaics is being widely recognized. Recently, Huati Technology, the first main board-listed company in the field of road lighting in China, revealed that it will vigorously deploy distributed new energy systems in 2022, integrating distributed photovoltaics, micro energy storage, and the Internet of Things, and innovate urban new energy supply stations. Another papermaking company, Rongsheng Environmental Protection, also announced that it has officially cross-border photovoltaics, target photovoltaic product development and manufacturing, and operation management of 1GW distributed photovoltaic power plants.

In addition, JD.com, SF Express, China Post, China Gas, Tianyu Ecology… According to incomplete statistics, in 2021 alone, as many as 27 companies will “enter” the field of distributed photovoltaic investment (Fighting Photovoltaic: More than 100 companies cross-border companies “get in”), and this number continues to grow.

Of course, there are also three major categories of leading companies that have been deeply involved in distributed photovoltaics for many years, the first category of comprehensive energy companies under the two major power grids, State Grid and China Southern Power Grid. There are more than 180 photovoltaic energy-saving service projects, with a total installed capacity of about 934.12MW; the second category is local state-owned enterprises such as Qingdao Chengtou, Guangzhou Development, and Zhejiang Communications Investment; the third category is Chint New Energy, Total Vision, Liansheng New Energy , Pufeng New Energy and other private developers.

“Eight princes” are flocking together and will build a wide-area territory for distributed photovoltaics in the future. Experts have previously predicted that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, my country’s newly installed distributed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 130GW~150GW, which is double the “13th Five-Year Plan”.

Tough “bones”

In the tuyere market, the carnival is bound to be accompanied by chaos. The primary problem with the gathering of “players” is the intense competition.

From the above-mentioned developers, the craziest thing is that there was a factory roof that attracted seven or eight photovoltaic developers to bid at the same time, and they were all famous companies, and the electricity price discounts ranged from 10% to 30%. As a result, it is conceivable that the roof owner finally chose the lowest electricity price, while ignoring whether the design scheme and project quality are optimal.

The “whole county” development model of distributed photovoltaics has made the market rapidly centralized. “The capacity is large, but the market is actually small.” Zhang Xiaobin, executive vice president of the Shandong Solar Energy Industry Association, summed up the future trend of the distributed photovoltaic market at the first photovoltaic building integration innovation forum in 2021.

According to the person in charge of the project operation of a central enterprise, at present, the funds for the development of the whole county are mainly paid by the investors. One county is one enterprise, and the huge investment funds have also achieved the natural advantages of the central state-owned enterprises. In the end, the central state-owned enterprises quickly seized the resources of the whole county.

Zhang Xiaobin revealed that the central state-owned enterprise’s development idea for the whole county, the central state-owned enterprise generally will benefit the local government, and form a joint venture company with the government urban investment company to develop the resources of the whole county, and the development idea is not only limited to photovoltaics, but also from the perspectives of photovoltaic + industry and smart towns. Unified planning, in addition to self-investment transformers, energy storage configuration, etc. have further enhanced the advantages of central state-owned enterprises.

At present, the market resources of the whole county can be roughly divided into four categories. The first category is centralized photovoltaic power stations, the second category is parks, industrial and commercial roofs, the third category is the roofs of public buildings such as party and government organs and schools, and the fourth category is Residential roof.

The investment of central state-owned enterprises is more inclined to the first and second types of markets. Due to the dispersion of the other two types, the hidden risks and investment risks are relatively large, so the progress of the whole county is relatively slow at present. But first easy and then difficult, first simple and then complicated, Zhang Xiaobin also reminded that if the central state-owned enterprises fully penetrate, the market opportunities of private enterprises will face the risk of tightening.

In fact, national cooperation has also become the mainstream model in the development of distributed photovoltaics in the whole county. Shenhua Guohua is responsible for the roof of public resources, while Chint An can take over the roof for household use. In addition, Jinko Technology + Huadian, Zhongli Group + State Power Investment Corporation, Linyang Energy + Huaneng, etc., there are many cooperation cases.

However, industrial support is still a threshold that is difficult for private enterprises to overcome in the development of photovoltaics. For example, the just-released opinions on the allocation of indicators for new energy projects in Jiayuguan, Gansu, clearly define the allocation according to the investment intensity of the introduction of supporting industrial projects. 5 million yuan/MW.

As for small and medium-sized installers, Zhang Xiaobin suggested that small and medium-sized private enterprises should change their roles and use capital to become small platform providers, such as software system, channel development, team building, etc., or can undertake the development of a large integrator in a certain area, or become a central state-owned enterprise Small subcontractors in progress throughout the county.

To put it simply, the unchanging reality is that the development of distributed photovoltaics has begun, and in it, the only way is to take the initiative to adapt. However, whether the accelerated development will make the distributed photovoltaic resources overdraft in advance, and whether the grid capacity and the speed of rural grid transformation can be matched, many issues deserve attention.