The proposal of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” will surely accelerate the leapfrog development of new energy such as wind power and solar power. At the same time, a high proportion of renewable energy will put forward higher requirements on the flexible regulation capability of the power system, bringing new opportunities to the development of energy storage.
In 2030, new energy will increase storage or exceed 34GW
On September 22, 2020, my country pledged to the world at the United Nations General Assembly, “China will increase its nationally determined contributions, adopt more effective policies and measures, and strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, and strive to achieve carbon emissions by 2060. “Neutralization” (hereinafter referred to as the 30·60 dual carbon target). On December 13, 2020, at the Climate Ambition Summit, my country further elaborated on its carbon peak and carbon neutral goals, proposing that by 2030 China’s carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will drop by more than 65% from 2005, and non-fossil energy will account for one time. The proportion of energy consumption will reach about 25%, and the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts.
The National Energy Administration announced that in 2020, there will be 71.67 million kilowatts of new wind power installed capacity and 48.2 million kilowatts of solar power generation. Earlier, the National Energy Administration announced that from January to November 2020, the newly added wind power installed capacity was 24.62 million kilowatts and the new solar power installed capacity was 25.9 million kilowatts. This means that in December 2020 alone, the newly installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach 47.05 million kilowatts and 23.3 million kilowatts respectively. As of the end of 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power and solar power has exceeded 530 million kilowatts.
The National Energy Administration has issued a target of 120 million kilowatts of new wind and solar power generation in 2021. According to 5% of the installed capacity of new energy, energy storage will be allocated. Then the scale of new energy side energy storage will increase by 6GW in 2021.
According to the goal of over 1.2 billion kilowatts of wind power and solar power installed capacity in 2030, it is estimated that in the next 10 years, wind power and solar power will increase at least 67 million kilowatts annually to achieve the goal of 1.2 billion kilowatts or more. Based on a simple calculation of 5% of the configured energy storage ratio, in 2030, the new energy will add more than 34GW of supporting energy storage.
The China Investment Association and the Rocky Mountain Research Institute predict in 2020 that under the goal of carbon neutrality, China’s photovoltaic and wind power will account for 70% of the total electricity installed capacity in 2050. Correspondingly, electrochemical energy storage will grow from 189MW in 2016 to 510GW, with an average annual growth rate of 26%.
The proposal of the “30·60 Double Carbon Target” will surely accelerate the leap-forward development of new energy sources such as wind power and solar power. A high proportion of renewable energy will put forward higher requirements on the flexible regulation capability of the power system, which will bring energy storage development. Here comes a new opportunity. The energy storage device can realize load peak shaving and valley filling, increase the power grid peak regulation capacity, and can also participate in system frequency and voltage regulation to improve the safety and stability of the grid. Speeding up the process of effectively integrating energy storage into the power generation, transmission and utilization of the power system is of great significance for ensuring reliable power supply and efficient use of new energy to achieve the 30·60 dual-carbon target.
Problems facing “new energy + energy storage”
One is insufficient flexibility and resources
Due to the imbalance of resource endowment and load in my country, coupled with the time-space mismatch of new energy, the large-scale integration of wind and solar into the power grid, the impact of its volatility and intermittent defects on the power grid is also increasing, and the peak shaving and consumption of the power grid The pressure is huge, and more flexible resources are needed to provide support for the safe, stable and efficient operation of the power system. At present, the flexibility of my country’s power system is relatively poor, and it is far from meeting the requirements of the rapid growth of volatility wind photovoltaic grid-connected scale. The proportion of my country’s flexible power supply, including oil-fired units, gas-fired units and pumped storage units, is far below the world average. Especially in the Three-North region where new energy is rich, the proportion of flexible adjustment is less than 4%, which is far lower than the United States, Japan and other countries. The biggest difficulty or risk of the operation of a high-proportion renewable energy power system is the lack of flexibility and high adjustment resources, the obvious shortage of frequency and peak shaving resources, and the obvious safety and stability problems.
In the newly released “Guidelines for the Safety and Stability of Power Systems” (GB38755-2019), power supplies should have the requirements for primary frequency regulation, rapid voltage regulation, and peak regulation capabilities. As the proportion of photovoltaic wind power generation continues to increase, the frequency modulation demand of the grid is increasing. As of the end of 2020, 18 provinces and cities have issued relevant documents encouraging or requiring new energy to allocate energy storage. Hunan, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, and Guizhou clearly stipulate the proportion of energy storage, and the proportion of energy storage ranges from 5% to 20%. Although Liaoning, Henan, and Tibet did not require specific energy storage allocation ratios, the document clearly states that new energy allocation energy storage projects will be “prioritized” during the review of new energy projects.
At present, new energy configuration energy storage projects are generally regarded as new energy distribution energy storage devices, especially chemical batteries. However, there are many flexible resources, including flexible thermal power, pumped storage power stations, gas power stations, oil-fired power stations, energy storage, and adjustable loads. They should be optimized from a system perspective and participate in the operation of the power system. Coming in the adjustment process.
Second, the market mechanism and related incentive mechanisms are not sound
Due to the inadequate reform of the system, the imperfect market mechanism, and the low degree of marketization, my country’s new energy power generation has always been a problem in the absorption of new energy. At present, energy storage has problems such as low technical and economic efficiency, independent and scattered locations, low utilization rate, and limited cost-reduction channels and limited profitability.
Due to the different development scales of new energy, grid structure, and peak shaving resource gaps in different regions, the strong distribution of energy storage brings greater cost pressure to new energy companies. Although the cost of electrochemical energy storage is declining year by year, it is still as high as 0.6-0.8 yuan/kWh, which is much higher than the 0.21-0.25 yuan/kWh electricity cost of pumped storage power stations. In addition to installation and operating costs, additional costs such as financing costs and project management fees are also high. Due to factors such as subsidy decline, fund arrears, and parity online, the profitability of new energy projects is gradually shrinking, and the allocation of energy storage lacks a reasonable mechanism and clear investment recovery channels. The benefits are limited and the enthusiasm for construction is low. The conflict between energy and power grid companies has intensified.
The third is the lack of standards related to electrochemical energy storage
It has been more than ten years since the development of the electrochemical energy storage industry, and the relevant standards have not been perfected. The energy storage system has gone from design, transportation to installation, commissioning, acceptance and later operation and maintenance, as well as the post-disaster treatment and battery of the energy storage system. There are no very complete standards and policies to support such recycling.
New energy distribution and storage must grasp four key points
First, strengthen the coordination of energy storage and “source-network-load” planning.
The government should make overall plans for the development of all flexible resources. If swarms and floods develop, the result will only cause disorderly competition and waste of social resources.
Strengthen the coordinated planning of energy storage and “source-network-load” and promote the coordinated development of “source-network-load-storage”. According to the demand for flexible adjustment of resources, development positioning and characteristics in different regions, clarify the scale and layout of energy storage development, realize the coordinated development of “source-network-load-storage”, and reasonably determine the development scale, facility layout, access scope and The construction schedule and rolling adjustments will guide the rational layout and orderly development of energy storage.
Second, speed up the construction of the electricity market.
The construction of medium and long-term power markets, spot markets, auxiliary service markets, and possible capacity markets should be further accelerated, so that various power resources can realize their economic value in market transactions, so as to promote new energy in a wider range and full power Market consumption will eventually increase the proportion of new energy power generation.
It is necessary to establish a market-based mechanism that can fully reflect the value of energy storage, rationally and scientifically evaluate the scale of energy storage allocation and the value of energy storage services, and design market rules for the market transition stage and the full market stage, and finally form “who benefits, who pays” “Market-oriented long-term mechanism. You can start by allowing energy storage system operators to provide diversified services as independent market entities, so that they can participate in peak shaving, frequency modulation, black start and other services. In addition to widening the peak-to-valley price gap, the price mechanism of energy storage can be formulated in accordance with the capacity price, the electricity price, and the auxiliary service price, and the impact on the power quality is used as the evaluation standard for the electricity price. While promulgating corresponding price policies, adjustments and amendments must also be made through their practices.
Promote the construction of energy storage cloud platform again.
View energy storage services with Internet thinking, promote the construction of energy storage cloud platforms, innovate the system and mechanism of energy storage operations with the development model of sharing economy and platform economy, fully tap the utilization potential of energy storage clouds, and actively explore integrated energy services and green power transactions , Demand response, energy custody and other new business models, through equipment sharing, resource sharing and service sharing to maximize the utilization value of energy storage equipment, to achieve optimal allocation and efficient use of energy storage equipment resources.
Finally, formulate and improve energy storage related standards
Further improve the technical standards for energy storage planning and design, equipment testing, grid connection testing, safe operation and maintenance, and fire protection, and establish the threshold for energy storage implementation. Promote the coordinated development of energy storage technology innovation and standardization, solve the key problems of the participation of energy storage facilities in system operation, and effectively guarantee the high-quality development of my country’s energy storage industry.