As the timing enters mid-2020, the competition for silicon wafer size is in full swing. As of May, China’s export of components in the first half of the year, as expected, was mainly G1 (158.75mm), accounting for 60% of the total export volume. The export of M2 (156.75mm) modules is gradually declining due to the high wattage demand in overseas markets, and the proportion of exports has dropped from 90% in Q1 in 2019 to 20% in Q2 in 2020. On the other hand, the export volume of G1 modules has increased quarter by quarter, and the export volume of M6 modules has gradually increased since this year. It is estimated that the export volume of M6 modules in the second quarter will account for 2GW. At the end of this year, there will be a situation where G1 and M6 are parallel. .

1.

*As June data is not yet available, 2020Q2 is an estimated value

In addition, after the Chinese New Year this year, leading component manufacturers such as Jinko, JA, Trina Solar, Risen Energy, Huansheng, Longi, and Canadian Solar have successively released large-size new products until the end of the second quarter. The size of the team is clear. Trina Solar takes the lead, Dongfang Risheng and Huansheng are the G12 (210mm) team, Jinko, Longi, Canadian Solar and JA Solar are the M10 (182mm) camp, and there are already overseas teams. The volume of M6 (166mm) components will lay the foundation for the three countries of M6, M10 and G12 sizes in the future. Not only that, the G12 modules released at the beginning of the year have been mass-produced in the third quarter. It can be seen that the photovoltaic industry is undergoing rapid iteration. Therefore, PV InfoLink analyzes manufacturers’ export proportions, market demand, module technology application differences, and FOB prices from the perspective of size. Trend.

Export volume of each manufacturer size

As of May this year, the total export volume of monocrystalline PERC was 19.8GW, of which the cumulative export of M2 modules was 5.1GW, the cumulative export of G1 modules was 11.7GW, the cumulative export of M4 (161.7mm) modules was 661MW, and the export of 163mm (actually 163.75mm) modules was 182MW. , The cumulative export of M6 modules is 2.1GW, and the current export of G12 modules is still less than 1MW.

Judging from the cumulative export module size from January to May, we can see that some manufacturers still export old M2 module orders. Among them, Canadian Solar 811MW, Longi 795MW and Dongfang Risheng 703MW account for one to five. 45.6% of the monthly export volume of M2 modules. Among them, M2 components are also the main products shipped by Canadian Canadian, accounting for 64.4% of Canadian Canadian’s cumulative exports.

2.

Jinko, JA and Trina Solar are the top three exporters of G1 modules, exporting 3.3GW of Jinko, 2.3GW of JA and 1.5GW of Trina Solar respectively, accounting for 60.7% of G1 module exports from January to May . In terms of the proportion of manufacturers’ shipments, G1 modules are also the main products shipped by these three manufacturers, accounting for 95.8% of Jinko’s exports, 92% of JA’s exports, and 85.3% of TRW’s exports. LONGi’s main supplier of M6 modules has accumulated exports of 1.5GW, accounting for 68.9% of M6 module exports. It can be said that LONGi’s modules account for nearly 70% of all M6 modules exported from China to overseas. M6 modules are also LONGi’s main export products, accounting for 65% of LONGi’s total exports. The suppliers of 163mm modules and M4 modules are Jinko and Hanwha, respectively, with cumulative exports of 660MW and 182MW respectively. However, 163mm modules currently account for only 5% of Jinko’s exports, while M4 modules account for nearly 70% of Hanwha’s exports. .

Component size requirements in various countries

In the export destination countries, M4 modules were exported to 201MW in Germany in addition to 206MW in the Netherlands, and the two together accounted for 62% of the total M4 module exports. Vietnam is the main export destination of 163mm modules, accounting for 80% of the total exports of 163mm modules.

Under the situation where G1 size is the mainstream this year, many countries are strong in pulling goods for G1 modules, accounting for more than 50% of the total number of modules exported to the country. The export proportions from the largest to the smallest are the United States, India, and India. Brazil, Ukraine, Vietnam, Australia, the Netherlands and Spain. In addition, compared with other countries, Ukraine, Australia and Mexico also have higher demand for M6 modules, which account for about 20% of their total exports.

3.

Size technology application

In different sizes, the application of module technology is still more than half-chip, and up to 70% of M6 modules use half-chip technology. Judging from the current cumulative module shipments to May, LONGi’s exports are the majority. The mainstream wattage of 72 units falls between 430W and 440W. With overseas M6 module signings, some manufacturers have transformed G1 and other production capacity to M6 and above. In response to demand, it is expected that M6 module exports will continue to increase in the second half of this year, and M6 shipments will be contended by the end of the year.

4.

There are many component export manufacturers using G1 with half-cell technology. Except for the top three export manufacturers, Jinko 2.2GW, and Chint and Suntech each have exported less than 1GW, 1.8GW is still shipped by other manufacturers. The proportion of manufacturers with M2 modules and half-cell technology is relatively even, with Longi, Canadian Canadian and Risen Energy each accounting for 20% of the export volume. The mainstream wattage falls on Longi 375W-380W, Canadian 385W-400W and Dongfang Ri respectively. Liter 380W-385W.

In the part of multi-busbar matching with half-cell technology, M6 and G1 size components are shipped by leading manufacturers. Canadian Solar 420-435W and TRW 430W respectively ship M6 components, while G1 components are shipped by TRW, JA and Risheng Oriental exports, the mainstream wattage is 390W, 400W and 405W.

Shingled technology components are still mainly M2 size, the mainstream wattage falls between 400-415W, mainly supplied by Huansheng.

The price difference of each size component

Affected by module export barriers and supplementary shipments, the export volume of mono-crystalline PERC modules from February to March reached a gap of 3.3GW, resulting in FOB module shipment prices that failed to reflect the true situation. However, from January to May, it can still be seen whether they are used regardless of the situation. Regarding the size, the FOB shipment price of the module has a trend of declining month by month due to the expansion of production and the shrinking demand caused by the epidemic. Due to reduced demand, M2 components are gradually being sold for customized products. In addition, some of them are exported earlier orders, so the price deviation is relatively large compared with G1. Due to the newly added production capacity of M6 modules, the production line cost is lower than that of M2 and G1. In addition, they are mainly shipped by a few manufacturers, so the price trend tends to stabilize and decline slightly. In addition, M6 manufacturers lowered their quotations in order to consolidate orders, and strengthened the competitiveness of high-wattage components by lowering prices. Therefore, it can be observed that the prices of G1 and M6 components gradually tend to the same price from April to May.

5.

in conclusion

The size situation is changing rapidly. Although G1 size modules have become the mainstream since this year, it has been observed that the export volume of M6 and above modules has grown rapidly and cannot be underestimated. Coupled with the strong demand for large-size orders in the second half of the year, it is expected that the proportion of M6 and above shipments by the end of the year may compete with G1 components.

From the perspective of manufacturers, LONGi’s shipments of M6 modules still account for the majority. Jinko and JA are the main exporters of G1 modules. Although Jinko has reached 163mm since the first quarter, it still accounts for its overall export volume. The ratio is very small, and we must continue to focus on shipments in the second half of the year. Canadian Solar is still exporting mostly M2 size modules. In response to the demand for large-size modules in overseas markets, it is expected that the focus of future shipments will shift to M6 modules.

In overseas markets, countries such as the United States, India, Brazil, Ukraine and Vietnam account for a high proportion of G1 module exports, accounting for 50% of their total exports. The Netherlands and Germany are the main markets for M4 modules, while Vietnam is the main market for 163mm modules. Ukraine, Australia and Mexico have higher demand for M6 modules than other countries.

From a technical point of view, half-cells are still the main application technology of various sizes. The difference is that the use of shingle technology is still based on the M2 size, and the M6 ​​size with shingle technology only has a small volume.

With the shipment of large-size overseas orders above M6 in the second half of the year, the export volume of M6 modules is expected to rise rapidly, while 182mm and G12 modules are in a gestation period, and there will be a small amount of overseas exports.