The price of photovoltaic glass has risen to historical highs and continues to rise. According to the latest price of PV InfoLink, 3.2mm photovoltaic glass has risen again, with an average average price of 37 yuan/m2, which is the fifth increase since July this year. In early July, the average price of photovoltaic glass was 24 yuan/m2. In three months, the price of photovoltaic glass has risen by more than 54%. Photovoltaic glass has already taken over silicon materials and has become a new hot spot for price increases in the photovoltaic industry chain. Moreover, under policy restrictions and a long production capacity release cycle, future supply will continue to be short, and photovoltaic glass will maintain its upward trend.

Tight supply pushes up prices

For the market, the main factor determining the price is still supply and demand. In the second quarter, as the impact of the global epidemic gradually weakened, demand in the photovoltaic industry began to start, and demand for photovoltaic glass increased. In the third quarter, with the support of domestic bidding projects, the photovoltaic industry gradually entered the peak season, and the demand for photovoltaic glass accelerated. According to photovoltaic glass manufacturers, the glass inventory cycle in the first half of this year was 15-20 days. As demand accelerated in the third quarter, the inventory cycle gradually narrowed to less than 7 days. The overall supply was tight, and the tight supply pushed up prices.

According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the photovoltaic glass industry may face a phased supply gap of about 15% in the fourth quarter. As the installed capacity of photovoltaics continues to grow in 2021, the gap in photovoltaic glass production capacity will further widen. Although photovoltaic glass companies are also actively expanding their production, since the construction cycle of glass production lines generally takes 1-2 years, the rate of increase in production capacity is not as fast as that of modules, and the release of production capacity is relatively lagging.

According to incomplete statistics from the Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network, photovoltaic glass companies will have 11,650t/d production lines put into operation in 2021. Among them, Flat will have 3 1200t/d and 1 1000t/d Vietnam production lines put into operation, Xinyi will have 4 1000t/d production capacity in Wuhu, Xinfuxing will have 2 11000t/d production capacity, but the furnace There is a certain climbing period, and the contribution of the production line in the second half of the year is relatively small. It is expected that photovoltaic glass will be released in 2022, which also means that the supply of photovoltaic glass will continue to be tight in 2021.

Indexes are restricted and expansion is more difficult

In recent years, in order to implement the State Council’s guidance on resolving serious overcapacity contradictions, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a number of documents to restrict overcapacity flat glass, and prohibit filing and new flat glass projects that expand production capacity. It is indeed necessary to build new ones. Must implement reduction or equivalent replacement, and establish a capacity replacement plan. On January 3, 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Operational Questions and Answers on the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Cement Glass Industry”, which clearly included photovoltaic glass in the scope of flat glass with overcapacity, and stipulated that “the cumulative production within two years or three years does not exceed one year. Cement clinker and flat glass production lines cannot be used for capacity replacement”, this new regulation will be officially implemented on January 1, 2021.

With the imminent implementation of the new regulations, glass production indicators will further shrink, which will not only directly increase the difficulty of enterprise expansion, but also directly increase the policy cost of photovoltaic glass. Recently, many companies have entered the capacity replacement process before the implementation of the new regulations, which has promoted the upsurge of competition for glass production indicators, and auction prices have also risen, continuously setting new highs.

On September 9, after 68 bids between two companies, the three production lines auctioned by Shiming Glass Co., Ltd., Chaoyang City, Liaoning Province, had a total production capacity of 810t/d of flat glass. The transaction was finally sold at RMB 73 million, with a unit price of approximately RMB 90,000. yuan / tonne.

On September 21, Shenyang Yaohua Glass Co., Ltd.’s 800t/d flat glass production capacity index, after 313 bids by 7 companies, finally sold at 132.88 million yuan, equivalent to 166,100 yuan/ton. The buyer was Xinyi Glass (Yingkou) ) Co., Ltd. broke the auction record of Shiming Glass in Lingyuan City.

On September 26, Hebei Daguangming Jiajing Glass Co., Ltd. auctioned its index of 2×700t/d glass production capacity, setting a new high for the glass production index price with a total transaction price of 199 million yuan.

It is reported that most of the current production capacity under construction is obtained from the previous approvals. It is expected that it will be difficult to obtain approvals under policy restrictions in the later period. Domestic production capacity cannot be expanded. Only the leading companies have the ability to expand overseas, which may hinder When new companies enter the industry, the pattern of leading gatherings in the future will be clearer. In this situation, the bargaining power of enterprises will be further enhanced, and the upward trend of photovoltaic glass will remain unchanged.